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Q+A-Last days of Sri Lanka’s war?

[Reuters, Monday, 20 April 2009 13:53 No Comment]

Sri Lanka on Monday gave the Tamil Tiger separatists a 24-hour deadline to surrender or face annihilation inside a tiny coastal strip, signalling the final fight in Asia’s longest-running war.

 

Here are questions and answers about what happens next on the Indian Ocean island:

 

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE DEADLINE ENDS ON TUESDAY? The military isn’t saying, but it is all but certain this will be the final conventional battle of the 25-year-old war. It is a safe bet that the military will replicate the tactics they have used around the edges of a 17 square km (6.5 sq mile) no-fire zone. They will use snipers to pick off Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) rebels trying to block people from fleeing. In any case, the military has vowed no more truces. So a conventional defeat is on the cards very soon for what has long been regarded by many as one of the most resilient and ruthless guerrilla groups.

 

AND WHEN THAT FIGHT IS OVER? The government’s focus will immediately shift to the post-conflict situation. That means containing potential hit-and-run attacks by remaining LTTE fighters hiding around the island. There is also the enormous task of clearing northern Sri Lanka of thousands of landmines and hidden weapons caches. The government will also be under pressure to rapidly resettle the roughly 100,000 civilians who have escaped Tiger areas this year, getting them out of refugee camps that have been criticised by the United Nations. President Mahinda Rajapaksa is counting on at least $1 billion in development aid to help restart the economy in northern Sri Lanka.

 

WHAT WILL THE END OF THE WAR MEAN FOR THE ECONOMY? It will no doubt be a boost, but Sri Lanka’s $40 billion economy — long one of the strongest in South Asia — is reeling. That’s due to the global economic crisis, low foreign exchange reserves and falling prices for its main exports of garments and tea. Tourism, which has managed well enough since the war started in 1983, is also taking a beating this year. Economic growth is expected to hit an eight-year low of around 2.5 percent after 6.0 percent in 2008. The government is negotiating a $1.9 billion International Monetary Fund loan to help boost reserves hovering at less than six weeks of import cover and cover a balance of payments shortfall. Add to that the rupee’s <LKR=> progressive fall to new lows and a months-long set of doldrums on the Colombo Stock Exchange <.CSE> and there are plenty of challenges ahead.

 

HOW DOES THE GOVERNMENT PLAN TO MEET THAT? Besides the IMF loan, which analysts say has prompted the central bank to stop supporting the rupee, it is banking on economic revival in the north and linking markets there with those in the capital Colombo, in the south. Tourism operators are already seeking external investors to build new properties and upgrade existing ones to bring the island back to its former glory as a top tropical destination. Rajapksa has been an advocate of local production and in particular boosting Sri Lanka’s agricultural output to help people make a living and cut the high costs of imports. The central bank has also eased its tight monetary policy which has brought interest rates down. Investors hope that will spur more access to credit, more economic activity and better fundamentals for shares on the Colombo Stock Exchange.

 

WHAT ABOUT POLITICS? It is a very safe bet that Rajapaksa will be able to win another term. His commitment to ending a war that previous leaders could not has won him big fans among the Sinhalese majority, and he has splintered the opposition. Rajapaksa’s United People’s Freedom Alliance coalition is the favourite to win polls due on Saturday in the Western Province, which includes Colombo and has traditionally been the stronghold of the main opposition United National Party. Local media is rife with speculation that he will call a presidential election before it is due in late 2011 to capitalise. Rajapaksa’s allies say an early poll is likely, but that no one but the president knows when that will be.

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