Will President Obama’s surge defeat the Taliban insurgency? Will Pakistan crush its own Islamic rebellion and move on al-Qaeda’s safe havens in its tribal frontiers? Will India prove it has finally cast off its Third World image and become a true global power? Can Sri Lanka win the “peace” after its military victory against the Tamil Tigers? This time next year, we may know the answers.
1. In Afghanistan, the frontline in the war on terror, the year will begin with a blitz as at least 9,000 soldiers from President Obama’s surge join British troops in a major January offensive against Taliban strongholds in Helmand. Their target is opium growing territory west of the Helmand River, which funds the insurgency and Marjeh city, the production centre of the roadside Improvised Exlosive Devices which are killing growing numbers of Nato troops.
2. January 1 2010 will be the first day of a new civil disobedience campaign by leaders of the Gorkha movement, who want a separate Darjeeling hill state within the Indian Union. Their revolt will paralyse much of West Bengal state and fuel the push to create new states throughout India following New Delhi’s support for a Telangana state in Andhra Pradesh. New separatist movements will emerge to press for the division of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Bihar and Jharkhand.
3. Pakistan, too, will find itself facing its own moment of truth: its Pakistan People’s Party government, weakened by the reopening of corruption cases against several of its leaders, will come under growing pressure to expand its offensive against Taliban militants in South Waziristan to those militants it has long regarded as allies in its regional conflict with India. Washington is intensifying its campaign to force Islamabad to attack the North Waziristan forces of Taliban commander Jalaluddin Haqqani, which regular cross the border to kill Nato troops in Afghanistan. The government will also face an escalation of America’s “drone war” against Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar’s ruling Shura in Balochistan, while anti-Pakistan Taliban militants are likely to step up their suicide bombing and assassination campaign on its main cities. Will Islamabad accept there are no “good” Taliban?
4. The deciding factor in how this plays out will be who is in power in Islamabad. The Supreme Court’s decision to reopen corruption cases against senior ministers and its request for Swiss cases against President Zardari to be revived could force new elections in which former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif would be the likely victor. Mr Sharif owes Britain and the United States nothing and may restrict covert drone attacks on Pakistan’s soil.
5. Bangladesh is likely to execute five army soldiers convicted of the murder of founding president Mujibur Rahman, the father of current prime minister Sheikh Hasina. If it does carry out the death sentences, it will reopen the generational feud between the prime minister’s supporters and those of her long-standing bitter rival Begum Khalida, whose late husband Ziaur Rahman was accused of protecting the assassins. The feud has blighted the country’s development.
6. Sri Lanka goes to the polls to decide who won the war: President Mahinda Rajapaksa or his former Army chief and now presidential rival General Sarath Fonseka? Rajapaksa believes in one Sri Lanka without ethnic or communal divisions, Fonseka says he believes in reconciliation for lasting peace with the Tamil minority. The election on January 26th could also determine the government’s attitude towards investigations into war crimes during the 26 year civil war with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elaam.
7. The conflict in Nepal between the Maoists and the coalition government is likely to intensify as Prachandra’s forces escalate their regional rebellion and implement announcements of autonomous states in 13 districts. The dispute centres on army resistance to admitting Maoist guerrillas into its ranks.
8. India’s claim to be a modern, growing global power will be put to the test in October when it stages the Commonwealth Games as a showcase for its progress. Preparations are alarmingly behind schedule, and officials fear New Delhi will fail to complete its preparations, confirming to doubters that India is more developing than developed.
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