Sri Lanka’s presidential election: Between a rock and a hard man – The Economist

0410LD3 THE presidential election in Sri Lanka on January 26th should have been a cakewalk for the incumbent. Last May, when his government defeated the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, bringing an end to a bloody 26-year insurgency, President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s popularity among the island’s Sinhalese majority knew no bounds. As for the Tamil minority, thwarted of the independent homeland for which the Tigers had been fighting, it was, at just 12% of the 21m population, too small to sway an election. Yet, as an ugly and at times violent election season nears its end, the outcome is now on a knife-edge. Despite the advantages of incumbency—such as fawning state-controlled media—the main challenger, Sarath Fonseka, might yet sneak home. Whoever wins, the prospects for a decent settlement for the Tamils, most of whom shunned the Tigers but nurture legitimate grievances, seem remote.

The danger to Mr Rajapaksa does not stem from Sinhalese voters’ sympathy for foreign criticism of him. The ruthlessness with which his government prosecuted the final stages of the war, and then interned some 300,000 Tamils for months, alienated many in the West. But the then General Fonseka led the army that committed the alleged war crimes. He was the architect of a plan for ensuring peace by hugely boosting the size of the army after the war. And Mr Fonseka’s biggest mistake as a candidate may have been to appear disloyal to his own soldiers by accusing the defence secretary (who happens to be the president’s brother) of having ordered extra-judicial killings (before withdrawing the accusation).

No, Mr Rajapaksa is under threat because Mr Fonseka, by his very presence, trumps his best card, that of the conquering hero. And without that card, Mr Rajapaksa’s hand looks weak. His government is widely seen as high-handed, corrupt and crudely nepotistic. Gotabaya, the defence secretary, is just one of three well-placed brothers. A legion of other members of what Sri Lankans have taken to calling the “royal” family have also thrived. Although the economy is well-placed to bounce back from a slowdown this year, rising prices and mismanagement in health and education have made the government look inept. So has its clumsy handling of relations with the EU, where it is poised to lose valuable trade privileges and thus thousands of jobs in the garment industry.

All of this has helped forge an extraordinary coalition behind Mr Fonseka. It includes the mainstream opposition, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, or JVP, which espouses an improbable amalgam of Sinhalese chauvinism and Marxism, and the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), once seen as a front for the Tigers. What unites these groups is a hatred for the Rajapaksas even deeper than the one they hold for each other.

Casting votes going cheap

In a close race, Tamil votes are vital. Just as the Tigers won the 2005 election for Mr Rajapaksa, by enforcing a boycott of the polls in areas they controlled, so Tamil voters could now unseat him. But neither candidate has offered a proper power-sharing deal to Tamils in the north and east, where most of them live. Tamils have little reason to expect their lives to improve under Mr Fonseka. Even as a serving soldier, he ventured that “Sri Lanka is a Sinhala Buddhist country.” He said minorities should not make “unreasonable demands”.

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