The contradictions between the Establishments and Peoples are likely to be the most antagonistic in the Indian subcontinent and hence that is the region for the next major change in the World. Our alliance with Tamil Nadu is of utmost priority in this regard. It appears that India used the Vanni War without witness as a ‘Field Trial’ for its developing wars against its own Nations without State. In due course, the Indian Establishment will become the main enemy of the region and at that time coalition of Establishments supporting the Indian Establishment will be quite different to the coalition that supported genocidal Sri Lanka. With this in perspective, we should keep our eyes open to new opportunities including progressive Sinhala forces that recognize the Right of Self Determination of the Nation of Eezham Tamils, writes TamilNet Economic and Geopolitical Analyst in the Asia Pacific.
Some main excerpts from the article:
Perspectives of the Future are a trend towards even Development resisted by the Globalised Establishments.
The objective of Self-determination of Nations is to transfer Political Power to all Nations and is compatible with the trend towards even Development and therefore naturally will be opposed by the Globalised Establishments (which currently consist of Historical Imperialists and Agent Imperialists) as they are constituted now.
The probability that the TNA will be more cooperative with the Globalised Establishments after the trip to USA is high. It is only the pressure of the Ground Reality that can reduce that probability just as the Ground reality in Tamil Nadu can restore sense in Jayalalithaa.
Clinton went to meet Jayalalithaa to nip in the bud the Solidarity developing between Eelam Tamils and Tamil Nadu Tamils.
The good news is that in spite of extreme nature of oppression, resistance is developing in the Homeland by students and the civil society.
The Diaspora can and should engage the host governments and even other governments but must realize that neither persuasion nor “applying pressure” will work unless we have sufficient back up forces and the back up forces can come only from our Natural Allies.
While the strategic approach of moving with the Flow is clear, it is equally important to work out the tactics of getting out of the present ‘low point’ and move again.
The tactics of the Homeland struggles will be determined by the Enemy actions and will obviously have to match the Technology of the Enemy.
The 30+ Countries that supported the war against Tamils and continuing to support GOSL in its occupation of the Tamil Homeland can be treated as enemies.
Although GOSL had been our main Enemy ever since historical British Imperialists devolved Political Imperialism to the Agent Imperialist GOSL, the Government of India (GOI) took over the role of the Main enemy during the IPKF Period.
Again from 2007, when Mahinda (at the behest of India and hence the West) invited China to join the coalition of Establishments in the war against Tamils, India has become the virtual Main Enemy.
Just as our enemies adopt ‘Divide and Rule’, we also should learn to isolate the Main Enemy and engage in a coalition against him.
The tactics to be adopted by each party will be determined by the Ground reality the party faces and therefore should be left to the party concerned.
We need to bear in mind to eliminate or at least minimize the inequities among us so that we can move united towards common objectives.
Moving united means to understand our role (as individuals and groups) towards achieving the objectives and acting as effectively as possible and discuss with others for improvements.
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Full text of the article by TamilNet Economic and Geopolitical Analyst in the Asia Pacific:
Understanding the Politics of History and the Geopolitics is for the purpose of anticipating the Politics of the Way Ahead. Such anticipation should help us to see the Perspectives of the Future and how our Objectives fit into those Perspectives. In that light it will be more appropriate to discuss Strategy and Tactics.
The end of the Second World War also represented a turning point in History when Man’s influence over Nature exceeded the influence of Nature on Man and this is no different to a child attaining adulthood.
The turning point, hence, represented a new era when Politics determined everything else, a reversal from Economics or mode of production being the determinant of Social Change to Politics becoming the determinant of Social Change. Political changes, to be meaningful, must lead to Technological Development capable of facilitating Social Change.
The historical Imperialists understood, more than the anti Imperialists, this changeover from History developing independent of Man’s will to Conscious development of History.
Thus the historical Imperialists knew to play the cards well that they succeeded in a consolidated transformation of Imperialism (first to Globalised Capital and then to the present Globalised Establishments) while the anti Imperialists sang the same old song of “Imperialism decaying and building Socialism”.
* * *
While the costly territorial Imperialism was dismantled and Political Imperialism was devolved among Agent Imperialists, the Economic Imperialism was retained by the historical Imperialists so that they could win the “Cold War” and even established a Uni Polar World for a short period (between the two Iraq Wars) by transforming Economic Imperialism into Globalised Capital.
Since Development was uneven from the beginning till the Turning Point in History after the Second World War, it follows that after the Turning Point, Development should be even and that was why the Uni Polar World was unstable and had to give way to the Multi Polar World.
Since the uneven Nature of the Globalised Capital was not compatible with the even Development of the Multi Polar World, the Globalised Establishments came into being as a further transformation of Imperialism from Globalised Capital so that Globalised Establishments could have a check on further even Development.
So the Perspectives of the Future are a trend towards even Development resisted by the Globalised Establishments. Even Development implies a world without (antagonistic) differences and hence has to be built on Equitability between groups and within groups.
* * *
The objective of Self determination of Nations is to transfer Political Power to all Nations and is compatible with the trend towards even Development and therefore naturally will be opposed by the Globalised Establishments (which currently consist of Historical Imperialists and Agent Imperialists) as they are constituted now.
The Nations without State and the oppressed peoples in the Nations with State on the one hand and the Globalised Establishments on the other hand (representing historical Imperialist Nations and Agent Imperialist Nations) are strategic Adversaries.
All Nations without State and the oppressed peoples in the Nations with State are Natural Allies. Likewise all the Establishments of the historical Imperialist Nations and the Establishments of the Agent Imperialist Nations are also Natural allies.
The Globalised Establishments are fully conscious of the Strategic Adversary Relationship and who their Natural Allies are whereas the Nations without State and the oppressed peoples in the Nations with State are ignorant of the strategic adversary relationship and who their Natural Allies are and in addition have prejudices of their own.
It is to be noted that the Globalised Establishments constitute only 1% of the World Population but managed to contain the 99% (Nations without State and oppressed peoples) by the Politics of Deceit. When the 99% wakes up, the paradigm will be “Occupy Earth.”
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The strategy for Eelam National Liberation should be considered in tune with the Liberation of all Nations without State, in tune with the desire of all oppressed peoples in Nations with State for a more Equitable (Socialist) Society and above all in tune with the trend towards even Development.
In other words we should FLOW with the River of History, Civilization and Evolution and achieve our National Liberation.
If we resist the Flow of History, we will be washed away and if we stay aloof, we will be ignored.
Although our desire for National Liberation was just by any standards, we lost in the Peaceful Resistance phase because others ignored us when the local adversary used State Terrorism against us.
In the Armed Resistance Phase, we lost in spite of being relatively stronger than the local adversary because the local adversary mobilized the full strength of all his Natural Allies whereas we were isolated from our Natural Allies added to the fact that we did not have a “friend” in the Globalised Establishments and therefore had to cope with an unfavourable external environment.
* * *
Some in our ranks thought and still continue to think that our strategic Adversaries will deliver us Liberation though it is possible to make use of contradictions among the strategic adversaries for which we must have resources to attract some of the strategic adversaries.
Alternatively, we together with some of our Natural Allies should develop as a strong Geopolitical Force with significant Market Potential.
Tagging to any or a group of the Glbalised Establishment would have made sense during the cold war era or even during the era of Globalised Capital but not in the present phase of Globalised Establishments which are trying to act in unison out of desperation to preserve the status quo.
We study the past, not to find or allocate faults, but to plan the Future.
No doubt we are at a “Low Point” and there is lot of Negativism including inaction associated with that. It is to be noted that while “Right Action “is always desirable, even wrong action is better than inaction because wrong action gives us an opportunity to correct ourselves.
* * *
While the strategic approach of moving with the Flow is clear, it is equally important to work out the tactics of getting out of the present “low point” and move again.
We need to bear in mind to eliminate or at least minimize the inequities among us so that we can move united towards common objectives.
Moving united means to understand our role (as individuals and groups) towards achieving the objectives and acting as effectively as possible and discuss with others for improvements.
* * *
Due to historical circumstances, we have a larger Diaspora compared to Homeland population in relation to other National Liberation Movements but that cannot change the relative roles.
It is a mistaken belief particularly among the Diaspora that the Diaspora should lead the Homeland Tamils and some even think we should form “Governments”.
A Liberation Movement, like a tree, needs the seed, the territory and the environment to grow.
The seed and the territory are still there in the Homeland though GOSL is trying hard to deprive us of the territory and even the seed by capturing our territory and by proceeding with the Genocide and these moves have to be at least arrested.
The Occupation Forces are very large, nearly one for every 13 civilians. This is very larger than any known in Historical Imperialism.
The Establishments numbering more than 30 that joined the GOSL in the war are continuing with the financial assistance to maintain the Occupation instead of reparation or compensation to war victims.
Further the Occupation forces and the southern traders with the help of their foreign friends are strangulating the Homeland Economy by taking over even small businesses in addition to agricultural and fisheries opportunities.
Added to that, Indian trawler fishing is encouraged by the SL Navy and the Government of India at the expense of ordinary fishermen of Eelam with the idea of causing antagonism between the ordinary fishermen of Tamil Nadu and Eelam.
* * *
The good news is that in spite of extreme nature of oppression, resistance is developing in the Homeland by students and the civil society.
What is more, they have not forgotten the lessons of the past and demanding Political Solution as the priority.
However the Globalised Establishments are trying their utmost to prevent this resistance developing to mass resistance and possibly armed resistance due to the brutality of the occupation forces and also trying their utmost in preventing the solidarity of the closest Natural Ally of Tamilnadu Peoples.
It is to be noted that the TNA resumed talking to GOSL just after Blake met Sampanthan and Jayalalithaa has shifted her position even on the hanging of the three in the alleged Rajiv assassination case after the meeting with Clinton.
The probability that the TNA will be more cooperative with the Globalised Establishments after the trip to USA is high. It is only the pressure of the Ground Reality that can reduce that probability just as the Ground reality in Tamilnadu can restore sense in Jayalalithaa.
* * *
The Diaspora Leadership on the other hand is somewhat immune from the pressure of the Ground Reality at least because of the physical separation from the Homeland while being subject to the pressures of the host governments.
The Diaspora can and should engage the host governments and even other governments but must realize that neither persuasion nor “applying pressure” will work unless we have sufficient back up forces and the back up forces can come only from our Natural Allies.
If we abandon our Natural allies for fear of the Globalised establishments then we are doomed. Without breaking any laws we can develop the Solidarity with our Natural Allies and that Solidarity will help influencing the Globalised Establishments because the 1% knows its dependence on the 99%.
Even while developing solidarity with Natural Allies, we should take the effective path. There is always a Golden Rule to follow when in doubt. Do the opposite of what the Enemy is doing or what the enemy wants us to do.
Remember how quickly Clinton went to meet Jayalalithaa to nip in the bud the Solidarity developing between Eelam Tamils and Tamilnadu Tamils.
We also should note that the President of the GTF, Father Emanuel, though he had a valid entry visa, was not allowed to land in Chennai. So developing that Solidarity should be our first priority.
* * *
For further understanding of the Geopolitics, we should remember that LTTE was first banned in the USA during the Clinton Administration, long before the 9/11 and therefore the ban had more to do with preventing National Liberation than fighting international terrorism.
Even the EU banned the LTTE long after the 9/11 but when LTTE was negotiating with the GOSL under the patronage of the co chairs and everyone knows who the co chairs were.
While the strategic objective of the Homeland, the Diaspora and the Natural Allies is the Recognition of the Right of Self Determination of the Eelam Tamil Speaking Nation, the tactics to be adopted by each party will be determined by the Ground reality the party faces and therefore should be left to the party concerned.
The tactics of the Homeland struggles will be determined by the Enemy actions and will obviously have to match the Technology of the Enemy.
What the Diaspora can and should do is to assist by creating a favourable international Political Environment and the obvious partnership is with the Natural Allies and the Priority is the Solidarity with the Tamils of Tamilnadu.
The campaign for the Implementation of the UNSG Report including the appointment of an independent international investigation, the campaign against war crimes and the crimes against Humanity are all Gateways for the creation of this Political Environment leading to the Recognition of the Eight of Self Determination of the Eelam Tamil Speaking Nation.
This Political Environment will determine everything else including the necessary pressure on appropriate members of the Globalised Establishments.
* * *
The other major aspect of understanding Geopolitics and Politics of History is to anticipate the future Geopolitical Developments in the light of Flow of History and align us with that Flow.
The Global Economic Crisis and the Environmental Crisis are dictating an imminent New World Order for the survival of Life itself on the Planet.
The contradictions in this regard between the Establishments and Peoples are the most antagonistic in the Region of the Indian subcontinent and hence that is the Region for the next major change in the World.
It will be the Liberation of a third of the Nations without State in the World.
Even from this perspective, our alliance and Solidarity with the Tamil Nation of Tamil Nadu will be beneficial. This should be our tactical Geopolitical approach within the Perspectives of Solidarity with other Nations without State and the oppressed peoples in the Nations with State.
* * *
Understanding of Geopolitics should also include who our enemies are in the Globalised Establishments and who our main enemy is.
The 30+ Countries that supported the war against Tamils and continuing to support GOSL in its occupation of the Tamil Homeland can be treated as enemies.
Although GOSL had been our main Enemy ever since historical British Imperialists devolved Political Imperialism to the Agent Imperialist GOSL, the Government of India (GOI) took over the role of the Main enemy during the IPKF Period.
Again GOSL took over that Role after the withdrawal of the IPKF but since the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) of 2002, the Role of the Main Enemy was in a fluid state among GOSL, Co Chairs and India, with GOSL nominally in that Role.
However it is reasonable to conclude that from 2007, when Mahinda (at the behest of India and hence the West) invited China to join the coalition of Establishments in the war against Tamils, India has become the virtual Main Enemy.
It is worth recalling, according to Devasahayam of Chennai that during 2006/2007 when Mahinda was getting tuned for a Political Solution, it was Delhi that played the Spoiler Role.
It appears that the India used the Vanni War without witness as a “Field Trial” for its developing wars against its own Nations without State.
In due course, the Indian Establishment will become the Main Enemy of the Region and at that time coalition of Establishments supporting the Indian Establishment will be quite different to the coalition that supported the GOSL.
With this in perspective, we should keep our eyes open to new opportunities including progressive Sinhala forces that recognise the Right of Self Determination of Eelam Tamil Speaking Nation.
Just as our Enemies adopt “Divide and Rule”, we also should learn to Isolate the Main Enemy and engage in a coalition against him.
The Future is full of hope plus opportunities and there is nothing to despair.
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